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Where is the Market Going?
If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by
this time next year, well I may as well flip a coin, because I
don't know.
If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by
this time next month, well again, I may as well flip a coin,
because I still don't know.
If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by
this time next week, AGAIN, I may as well flip a coin, because I
don't know.
And if you ask me whether the market will have moved up or
down by this time tomorrow, I am sorry, but I JUST DON'T
KNOW!
But? if you ask me whether the market will move up or down in
next few minutes, well I will have a definite opinion. Why?
Because if I can see the CURRENT state of buying and selling in
the market NOW, then I can make a reasoned and fairly accurate
estimate of what the market will do in the next few minutes and
moments.
My prediction will not be based on some secret formula; it
will not be based on some esoteric sounding indicator, nor on
some complex mathematical equation. No, it will be based on my
evaluation of the current state of supply and demand.
Predicting the long-term movements of the markets is a
guessing game. All we have to go on is the past; all we can
reasonably do is assume that what has happened in the past will
continue to happen in the future. Basically that is what trend
following is, making the assumption that the past equals the
future.
In my trading world, the only law that works is that of supply
and demand: if there are more buyers than sellers then the market
will go up; and if there are more sellers than buyers the market
will go down.
It matters not one iota the whys and wherefores of the buyers
and the sellers. It does not matter that a trader has chosen to
sell now because the 9 period moving average has crossed the 14
period; or because he has just lost his shirt; or because he is
taking a profit; or because he is just plain bored.
No, I don't care why a trader has entered a buy or a sell
order, I just care that they have, by their act, added to either
the buying or the selling pressure.
Malcolm Robinson
LIFFE Pit Trader & Electronic Trader
InstinctiveTrader.com
 MORE RESOURCES updated Sun. March / 07 / 2021
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